In our previous broadcast we started to address a question often posed to us: Why hasn't the Nomenklatura already expelled Fidel Castro from power? That question is asked most frequently by those who have spoken in confidence, both in and out of Cuba, with Cuban officials, many of whom occupy high positions in the government. To judge from these statements, the hostility against Castro in the official spheres is as strong as, if not stronger than, it is among the people.

In response to those who are skeptical of the criticism coming from these officials, who doubt it is real and suspect it is staged for one reason or another, we pointed out the numerous rebellions, schisms, desertions, suicides, imprisonments and executions that have occurred during Castro's regime. The dissension has come from the highest levels of government and provides compelling evidence of great internal conflict.

Consider the armed forces. It is the branch of government subject to Castro's most intense surveillance. Didn't the absurd accusation that Gen. Arnaldo Ochoa, the army's most powerful and best known officer, was engaged in drug trafficking bely profound dissension between Castro and his officials? Dissension which Castro tried to hide, indeed to crush? And didn't we see that other high officers of the Army and State Security were involved? What about the accusation of negligence against José Abrantes, Minister of the Interior, and his later fate? If his mysterious death in prison is not a clear clue that he was part of a plot against Castro, at least the whole affair speaks of widespread discontent and discord.

Yet precisely because of this history, because of conversations with high-ranking Cuban officials wherein intense and pervasive dislike of Fidel Castro is revealed, the question arises so urgently: why hasn't the nomenklatura expelled him from power?

We are convinced the dissension is genuine; our opinion is that a great part of the nomenklatura wants to oust Fidel Castro from power. Their testimony has been heard too often, under too many different circumstances, in too many varied locations and from too many different persons, to doubt their dissatisfaction with Fidel Castro. One thing only remains: the question of why they do not act. Before answering, we must say again that our information is restricted, by necessity. We receive much, but are acutely aware it is not all. And so we offer an approach to an answer, understanding it is tentative and reserved.

First one must realize that the nomenklatura has undervalued its power. They have not considered the enormous popular backing that an action against Fidel Castro would have. Nor the international solidarity they would find as leaders seeking to restore to the Cuban people command over their own destiny. It is more than probable that both the minority factions that back Castro within the armed forces as well as the members of his personal security force would be overwhelmed by a populace who would back the rebellion, notably the the civilian, military and state security nomenklatura.

Many have asked themselves how to set an uprising in motion. Though a conspiracy could be successful, we feel more inclined toward the opinion of some members of the military. A conspiracy is not necessarily, in today's Cuba, the most viable means to end Fidel Castro's reign. It is the assessment of these military people, and we believe they are realistic, that the spontaneous action of the people, in sudden, uncoordinated and disjointed riots, would create the conditions whereby the nomenklatura could topple Castro.

We do not ignore those in the official structures whose desire to eliminate Castro from power is tempered by concern over their own future. They think their well being would be compromised were Castro to fall. We believe this position to be the polar opposite of truth. It is with Fidel Castro that no future can be found. It is precisely his exit from power that will open new possibilities, both in and out of government, for those who seek Cuba's reconstruction and want the people to reap the harvest of their effort and toil.

In coming weeks we will return to this question, of why the nomenklatura has not expelled Fidel Castro from power.

Our next broadcast will coincide with the 24th of February, when the proclamation of Baire is commemorated, and also the date chosen by the Cuban Council to stage their national rendezvous. We will dedicate that broadcast to the brave men and women who, armed only with their courage and reason, peacefully, and in spite of repression, threats and arrests, try to open a space for the Cuban people to live again in freedom. Our words will commemorate that purpose and event.

From Washington, spoken to you by Emilio Adolfo Rivero

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New Cuba Coalition
P. O. Box 14077
Washington, D. C. 20044-4077
Dr. Emilio-Adolfo Rivero — President
Ernesto Díaz-Rodríguez — Vice President
e-mail: cuba@idt.net